Grow-slow

Population explosion or implosion?

By Ian Greenland

News came recently that Japan has increased its already notable collection of islands by one, as sustained underwater volcanic eruptions have created a new, albeit relatively small landmass some 745 miles south of capital city, Tokyo. Experts confirmed that “phreatomagmatic eruptions” (resulting from water and magma interacting) which began October 21st and continued into November saw plumes of ash and smoke rising 50 metres, large rocks hurtling through the air and swathes of pumice stones in the western pacific waters close to Iwoto island (formerly Iwo Jima, a crucial stronghold in WWII)
The result of all this hustle and bustle? A new island some 100m in diameter and 20m at it's highest point. Hardly Everest, but then anyone who's ever tried to build land (no??...) will know it's no mean feat. Underwater volcanoes, of which scientists believe there could be hundreds for each of the approximately 1350 potentially active terrestrial sort, have been responsible for the birth of significant landmasses such as the Hawaiian Archipelago, though its origin predates our own species, hence the excitement at witnessing literal terraforming off the coast of Japan.

With a host of some 125 million people making it one of the most densely populated countries on Earth, containing the second largest percentage of pensioners globally, you'd think Japan could certainly use a new granny-annexe, though it remains to be seen whether the freshly formed locale will see out the new year of succumb to the rigours of erosion as similarly naïve eruptive formations sometimes do.
Public perception (at least amongst anyone currently sat in traffic) is that population growth is out of control, ecosystems and natural resources buckling under the weight of several billion smartphones. As such, a further reminder of Mother Nature's ferocious power could be a terrifying harbinger to a once hubristic species now routinely harried by the hurricanes, droughts, floods and famines of a climate forced out of whack by multitudinous demands. Nevertheless, it may be some comfort to learn that experts predict the global population will in fact peak before the century is out, reaching some 10.4 billion in 2086, before beginning to fall once more. This, according to the UN World Population Division, who are either very adept at statistical analysis, or have something nefarious planned for 62 years' time....
Around 10,000 BC, the global population was only 4 million – just half of London's today (and with far less fried chicken shops). Gradual generational gains as people started farming and stopped getting trampled by mammoths or gnawed on by sabretooths took a sizeable hit in the 14th C when the black death wiped out 25-50% of Europe. (Horrible pandemic, absolutely NO furlough scheme) Growth continued nonetheless, accelerating rapidly from the mid 1700s with the industrial revolution partly responsible for lower mortality rates. (Not amongst chimney sweeps...)
The last couple of centuries have witnessed a dizzying increase. 1800 saw a global population of one billion, a feat some 300,000 homo-sapial years in the making, though little more than a century later, this figure had doubled to two billion. A second world war notwithstanding, exponential growth from the Happy Days of the 50s and more than a little free love in the swinging 60s doubled this again to four billion by 1974. Though some truly horrible interior décor, leather elbow pads and a general overabundance of the colour brown sought to derail the population train in the 70s, disco music and John Travolta in tight crotched flares kept things swinging. By 1987, records show five billion people were available on earth to sport some truly embarrassing hairstyles to the cinema to see Robocop (though alas, not all of them did.... see Robocop I mean -  Everyone had shit hair)
12 years later in 1999, another billion people had popped into existence / refused to die – a pattern repeated through 2011 and 2023, bringing us to our present tally of eight billion, four times what it was just 200 years ago – amazing what a bit of toothpaste and a bar of soap will do.

Despite this increase in absolute numbers, statistics show population growth, the relative rate at which a populous increases, actually peaked decades ago. Where the 60s saw a high of 2% global population increase per year, it's since fallen to less than 1%, and, as previously mentioned, is expected to hit negativity 60 odd years from now. Whilst some economists and proponents of the infinite growth model may see the sky falling along with growth rates, we should rejoice at a little more elbow room on a planet already struggling to support our ravenous demands. Falling birth rates are in large part due to the increased agency of women in the modern world, their rights and autonomy abetted by better education and evolving norms. Moreover, research shows when women are in leadership roles, they are more likely than men to advance environmental initiatives. The natural world would certainly thank us, if not forgive us. Wildlife populations have plummeted by an average of 69% in the last 50 years, whilst “coincidentally” human populations have doubled. Surely a world with even more iPhones but no lions or elephants would leave us ultimately poorer.

Ultimately, we can but hope to switch to an economic model which prioritizes equity - societal and environmental welfare - over ever-expanding profits and their attendant inequality. If not for an improved quality of life, then perhaps for the sheer possibility of its continuance in the distant future. It may have only taken us a few hundred years to gain dominion over all the other beasts of the field, but when we've just watched mother nature pop out a small island in a matter of days, we'd do well to remember who's really boss round here.